Posts Tagged ‘Stats’

Shadowbuyer’s Residential Clock Is Ticking

February 9, 2010

Hello, Shadowbuyer fans.   The pace is quickening.  Since my last real post, we’ve made some progress on multiple fronts, but still have no transactions to report.

My residential clock is ticking.

As you may have read in the comments to my prior post, after the holidays we launched a 5-point attack on some long-listed homes in our target areas.  Some of those offers yielded no response, others earned us counters.  We countered on some of them, but didn’t hit the bid or close the deal in any of the situations.

So, it was back to the drawing board.

Now, I may not have mentioned this to the group, but if you saw her in person, there would be no question in your mind, so I’ll tell you – Mrs. Shadowbuyer is pregnant.  Like, very pregnant.  That means that we have a special kind of time pressure at hand.

Let’s call it the “residential clock,” a play on the biological clock.  The logic on the biological clock goes like this (single ladies out there, am I right?):  if I don’t meet THE guy by age 36, date him for a year, get engaged, then plan and have a wedding within a year of getting engaged, and get pregnant ON THE HONEYMOON, then I’m at risk of being 40 and childless, so I have to make this happen RIGHT NOW!

The residential clock works like this:  our baby is due on June 1 (he’s not, but let’s (more…)

Frustrated, Incorporated!

November 8, 2009
shangrila

This is Shangri-La, oh, oh!

Jumbo mortgage rates are down.  Lenders are opening up their vaults.  Loan to value requirements are loosening.  ShadowBuyer has liquidated all of his equity positions, and is ready to pull the trigger on a home purchase.  Whether you think prices in Santa Monica still have further to fall or not, you can’t disagree that now seems like a better time to buy than 1 or 2 years ago.  There’s no telling what the winter and first half of 2010 hold, but if we can find a place that we like, and that’s big enough for the next 5-7 years or more, then we would feel  good about getting a deal done.

So, what’s the problem?  My problem today is inventory.  5% of homes turn over each year.  We are halfway through the 1-year window in which we are really ready to buy.  That means that every 40th house, give or take, has come up over the last six months, and that another 1/40th of the inventory will come up for sale in the next six months.  Unless you want to live in a planned community where all of the homes are more or less identical, that scarcity of (more…)

The Doctor is in, and he is on fire.

October 31, 2009

frozenbubble

A bubble. Frozen. For now.

There is a guy blogging under the handle Dr. Housing Bubble, over at the Dr. Housing Bubble Blog.

Dr. Housing Bubble is prolific, and does an extremely thorough job of researching and considering mortgage, banking, employment, and other industry stats, figures, and mechanics.  His most recent post highlights why we are in the eye of the mortgage default and foreclosure hurricane, and how 2010 and 2011 are shaping up to be absolute bloodbaths for banks and over-extended home “owners.”

Even so, a guy’s gotta live somewhere.  When I find the right place, at the right price, I’m still going to buy it.  If it happens that you have a home you’re considering selling that matches the parameters set out in my initial post, please drop me a line.

A Crystal Ball Into the 4th Quarter

October 24, 2009

In February of 2008, the following news about Q4 2008 home sales was released by an industry trade group:

Most metropolitan area median home prices, impacted by distressed sales, trended down in the fourth quarter from a year earlier.  At the same time, existing-home sales rose in only six states from the fourth quarter of 2007, according to the latest survey by the National Association of Realtors.

That median home price stat is somewhat irrelevant to the Shadow Buyer family.  If there existed such a thing as a median priced home in Brenwtood or Santa Monica, believe me, I would never have been inspired to create this blog.  I would be playing in my median backyard with my far above median kid.

For Q4 2009,  in the micromarket that I hope to call home, based on my reading of the market, I predict that (more…)