A Crystal Ball Into the 4th Quarter

In February of 2008, the following news about Q4 2008 home sales was released by an industry trade group:

Most metropolitan area median home prices, impacted by distressed sales, trended down in the fourth quarter from a year earlier.  At the same time, existing-home sales rose in only six states from the fourth quarter of 2007, according to the latest survey by the National Association of Realtors.

That median home price stat is somewhat irrelevant to the Shadow Buyer family.  If there existed such a thing as a median priced home in Brenwtood or Santa Monica, believe me, I would never have been inspired to create this blog.  I would be playing in my median backyard with my far above median kid.

For Q4 2009,  in the micromarket that I hope to call home, based on my reading of the market, I predict that asking prices will stay flat with Q3 as sellers remain optimistic.  Meanwhile, selling prices will be down about 15% from last year, and 5% from Q3 as motivated sellers trade their optimism for pragmatism.

And the Shadow Buyer family?  I give us a 75% shot at having an accepted offer and a deal in progress by New Year’s Eve, probably as a result of counter-offering 5% more than we wanted to, and 10% less than the person selling us our new home would have liked.  Moreover, I give us a 50% chance of landing in our “North of Montana and parts of the 90049” target area, with the other 50% being scattered through the rest of the 90049, and into the lower, closer-in areas of the Pacific Palisades.

Remember, if you have a home you’d be willing to sell from out of the shadows, or if you have a friend or relative you think might be a ready shadow seller, please read the initial post on this blog, and then shoot me an email at shadowbuyer [at] gmail [dot] com.


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